The finale of House of the Dragon Season 3 delivered most of the things you would want from a finale. There were giant battles and major character deaths and significant betrayals on all sides. Naturally, most of these things are in service of setting the stage for the already-confirmed Season 4, which will also be the final season, bringing the Dance of Dragons to a close in what (fans hope) will be a fairly accurate representation of the source material, George R. R. Martin’s Fire & Blood.
But will it? Well, we hope so. But the HBO adaptation has already made some divergences, some of more consequence than others, and events can’t play out in quite the way they did in literary form. However, there’s still potential to adapt the broad strokes pretty accurately, which means we can speculate about what might happen in the final season following the first Battle of Tumbleton, Helaena’s suicide, Ulf and Hugh Hammer’s lack of loyalty, the death of Ormund Hightower, and Rhaenyra Targaryen’s tenuous grasp of the Iron Throne.
Here are five big moments you should probably expect to see in House of the Dragon Season 4:
The Battle Above the Gods Eye
This is the big one. In the book, Daemon challenges Aemond to a showdown at Harrenhal, and they duel over the Gods Eye with their dragons, Caraxes and Vhagar. In a climactic moment, Daemon leaps from dragon to dragon and plunges his sword, Dark Sister, through Aemond’s remaining eye. Both dragons and both men crash into the lake, and everyone dies.
I fully suspect House of the Dragon to make a massive deal of this, and it’ll probably account for a good amount of the final season’s budget. Based on what’s going on with these characters in the show, there’s no reason it can’t all play out pretty much exactly as described, and I think it will. This is one of those moments where any major change would be poorly received.
The fall kills both riders and both dragons, but notably, Daemon’s body is never found. If HBO wants to go off-piste with anything, I’d imagine it’d be a tease for Daemon’s survival. But the battle itself will probably be largely unchanged.
The Storming of the Dragonpit
Here’s another significant event that I strongly suspect will happen more or less unchanged, especially since a lot of the groundwork for it has already been done. The tapestry that Helaena left behind after her suicide was a literal depiction of it, no less, and her death is a major catalyst for brewing resentment among the smallfolk.
Rhaenyra’s relationship with the smallfolk has formed a major thread in Season 3, and part of her finale arc was basically giving up trying to appease people and instead deciding to rule through sheer Valyrian superiority. It has been established multiple times that the Crown is broke, so heavy taxes are due, and the death of Helaena and the bloody events at Tumbleton will all conspire to present Rhaenyra as a mad tyrant who needs to be overthrown.
In the book, the smallfolk are radicalised by a zealot known as The Shepherd. I suspect this angle will take place in the show, but with the change that Mysaria, who was banished from King’s Landing by Rhaenyra, will be the Shepherd and fulfil the same function. The smallfolk will storm King’s Landing, breach the Dragonpit, and slaughter multiple dragons, including Rhaenyra’s own, Syrax.
The Second Battle of Tumbleton
The Battle of Tumbleton was a major moment in the Season 3 finale, and led not only to the death of Ormund Hightower but also the betrayals of Ulf the White and Hugh Hammer, although the latter hasn’t quite switched sides just yet. He was supposed to defend King’s Landing but abandoned his post to take part in the battle, mostly to protect his wife, Kat. Since she was killed in the skirmish, Hugh will blame Daemon and Rhaenyra, and completely switch sides along with Ulf.
This creates “Two Betrayers”, leading to Rhaenyra’s wrath, and more to the point implicates Ser Addam Velaryon, who is unflinchingly loyal, as being similarly untrustworthy. In the book, to try and prove otherwise, he attempts to take Tumbleton – already razed from the first battle – from Hugh and Ulf to repair his own image, leading to a massive three-way battle between Vermithor, Seasmoke, and Tessarion, all of which die.
Hugh and Ulf also die; Hugh is killed in a Green conspiracy before he can mount his dragon, Ulf sleeps through the battle because he’s too drunk to participate and is poisoned the next day, and Daeron is killed in the opening confusion. Since Daeron wasn’t seen to be killed in the Season 3 finale, and all the groundwork was done with the Dragonseeds, there’s no reason this shouldn’t play out close to how it’s written.
Rhaenyra’s Death
To cap off a completely calamitous reign, Rhaenyra is eventually forced to flee King’s Landing for Dragonstone, the Targaryen ancestral seat where she spent most of her time conspiring prior to returning for her coronation. She’s penniless, dragonless, and despised by the time she leaves.
When she lands on Dragonstone, however, she finds Aegon II waiting for her, having sneakily retaken the island. Aegon sentences Rhaenyra to death and feeds her to Sunfyre, which has already been set up by Sunfyre’s survival (and was spoiled by Game of Thrones itself).
Again, there’s no reason why this can’t happen as written, more or less. It’s very much the culmination of Rhaenyra’s arc and the logical endpoint of her Season 3 transition to harsh despot.
A Song Of Ice and Fire
The Dance of the Dragons ends with the Targaryen line almost demolished and their dragons almost all dead, putting the Seven Kingdoms on the path that will eventually lead to Game of Thrones and the much bigger existential threat coming from beyond the Wall.
Since Season 4 will be the final season of House of the Dragon, I would imagine its ties to Game of Thrones and the Song of Ice and Fire prophecy to be made even more explicit, drawing obvious parallels between how the Dance of the Dragons left everyone vulnerable to the Night King’s advances.
In the book, Lord Cregan Stark arrives in King’s Landing from the North and basically sorts out the Crown following the poisoning of Aegon II, which was committed by someone within his inner circle (though the book never settles on exactly who – the show might). Expect the show to make a massive deal of a Stark arriving, especially in relation to foreshadowing the events in Game of Thrones.
